Thabo Mbeki Warns: “M23 has the power to topple Tshisekedi”
Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has stated that the armed coalition AFC/M23 has the capacity to overthrow President Félix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), citing widespread discontent and a lack of loyal forces behind the embattled leader.
Speaking in an interview with Power FM Radio, Mbeki pointed to colonial-era divisions as a lingering source of instability in the DRC. He noted that Belgian colonial rule left behind a legacy of ethnic fragmentation, which the Congolese leadership has failed to resolve.
“The colonial inheritance of ethnic division is what continues to destabilize governance in Congo. Unless that legacy is confronted and dismantled, peace will remain elusive,” Mbeki warned.
He drew historical parallels with former President Mobutu Sese Seko, whose downfall was partly triggered by his decision to revoke Congolese citizenship from the Banyamulenge—Congolese Tutsi who speak Kinyarwanda—and his deployment of Mai-Mai militias to expel them.
“Mobutu decided that the Banyamulenge, Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese, were not real citizens and had to return to Rwanda. That decision gave birth to the Mai-Mai movement, whose sole purpose was to expel the Banyamulenge,” Mbeki said.
Mbeki criticized President Tshisekedi for allegedly favoring people from his native Kasai region, effectively sidelining other Congolese communities. He argued that this perceived exclusion has fostered widespread resentment.
“The current president, Tshisekedi, comes from Kasai. Many Congolese feel excluded because he surrounds himself with people from that region. Even military appointments have heavily favored Kasai natives. When you alienate the rest of the country, you’re isolating yourself,” he said.
These remarks come at a tense moment in Congolese politics, as the government accuses former President Joseph Kabila of collaborating with rebel forces, visiting Goma (controlled by AFC/M23) in April, and facing charges including treason, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
Mbeki questioned the political wisdom of Tshisekedi’s approach to dealing with Kabila, warning that it could exacerbate existing divisions between Kasai and Katanga—Kabila’s home region.
“Tshisekedi sits in Kinshasa threatening to punish Kabila, who is from Katanga. Historically, this is interpreted as a power struggle between Kasai and Katanga. He won’t resolve the conflict that way,” Mbeki warned.
Mbeki also emphasized that AFC/M23 emerged as a response to the systemic denial of rights to Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese. He asserted that the group is gaining popularity across the country, while Tshisekedi’s support continues to wane outside of Kasai.
“People told me after M23 took Goma and advanced to Bukavu, ‘President, what you need to understand is that M23 is becoming popular across Congo.’ Because, as I mentioned, Tshisekedi has isolated himself by surrounding himself with people from Kasai, and other Congolese feel excluded,” he said.
Based on the reception M23 fighters receive in captured territories, Mbeki concluded that the coalition possesses the strength to remove Tshisekedi from power.
“M23 is the only group that currently has the capacity to oust Tshisekedi. That’s why they are welcomed so warmly wherever they go in Congo,” he said.
Mbeki ended his remarks with a stern warning: unless the DRC dismantles the ethnic divisions institutionalized during colonialism, the country will continue to suffer from conflict and political fragility
